Finally, consulting the COVID Tracking Project's historical data for the United States reveals that on the date the IHME's paper was published (March 30, 2020), the total number of COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States was 3,060, including 1 death from Guam and 6 from Puerto Rico. When we only include deaths from the 50 US states and DC, the number for March 30 thus drops to 3,053; as noted earlier, by May 5, 2020, that number had grown to 62,698. This increase of 62,698-3,053=59,645 deaths occurred over 36 days, reflecting about 59,645/36=1,657 new deaths per day on average during that time period. In the 86 days between May 5 and July 30, 2020 (the date to which these predictions apply), assuming a constant rate of growth in deaths, the number of total deaths accumulated will be 86*1,657=142,485, for a total of 62,698+142,485 = 205,813 deaths in the United States. By contrast, in order to have exactly the predicted number of deaths in the United States on July 30, we would need to accumulate exactly 81,111-62,698=18,413 additional deaths in the 86-day period between May 5 and July 30. This would require reducing new deaths per day nationally to an average of about 214--only about 12.9% of the average number for the 36 days between March 30 and May 5. This seems very unlikely given a recent White House report projecting that the number of new deaths per day would continue to increase into June, and would reach about 3,000 by June 1.\cite{reopen2020} Furthermore, extrapolating into the future for each state based on the average number of deaths per day in each state indicates that the 51 regions included here are almost exactly evenly split between those expected to exceed the IHME prediction (n=26) and those expected to fall below it (n=25). The difference between the IHME's best estimates for the number of deaths in each state by July 30 to the number predicted based on the linear trend just described is illustrated in the table below.
State | Predicted cumulative deaths | Predicted based on trend since 3/30 (7/30) |
New York | 10,243 | 62,886 |
New Jersey | 4,109 | 26,333 |
Massachusetts | 2,231 | 13,564 |
Michigan | 4,061 | 13,282 |
Illinois | 2,454 | 8,847 |
Connecticut | 773 | 8,369 |
Pennsylvania | 3,094 | 8,213 |
California | 6,109 | 7,321 |
Louisiana | 2,081 | 6,553 |
Florida | 3,342 | 4,672 |
Maryland | 857 | 4,427 |
Indiana | 2,440 | 4,200 |
Georgia | 3,165 | 3,933 |
Ohio | 2,733 | 3,486 |
Colorado | 940 | 2,732 |
Virginia | 1,543 | 2,258 |
Washington | 1,429 | 2,234 |
Minnesota | 1,280 | 1,427 |
Rhode Island | 245 | 1,146 |
Wisconsin | 853 | 1,119 |
Mississippi | 675 | 1,012 |
District of Columbia | 132 | 941 |
South Carolina | 768 | 889 |
Nevada | 801 | 852 |
Kentucky | 585 | 836 |
Delaware | 228 | 602 |
Texas | 5,847 | 2,915 |
North Carolina | 2,411 | 1,443 |
Missouri | 2,977 | 1,182 |
Arizona | 1,687 | 1,179 |
Alabama | 1,155 | 989 |
Oklahoma | 898 | 766 |
Tennessee | 1,551 | 711 |
Iowa | 742 | 623 |
New Mexico | 513 | 507 |
Kansas | 669 | 442 |
Oregon | 584 | 331 |
New Hampshire | 318 | 284 |
Nebraska | 437 | 260 |
Arkansas | 707 | 258 |
Idaho | 388 | 203 |
Maine | 334 | 186 |
West Virginia | 460 | 167 |
Utah | 619 | 160 |
Vermont | 386 | 148 |
North Dakota | 163 | 80 |
South Dakota | 201 | 69 |
Hawaii | 352 | 58 |
Montana | 251 | 45 |
Wyoming | 136 | 24 |
Alaska | 154 | 23 |
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2600.0% |
2500.0% |
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