Employment effects

The employment effects are more visible when analysed at a sectoral level than at a aggregate level where the impacts are below 0.1% in total employment. During the construction phase, in addition to the direct labor requirements for the project, the construction sector is the only economic area where employment increases (0.5%), with the rest of the sectors dealing with a crowding-out effect leading to a decrease in sector employment in the range of 0.3-0.6% (Figure \ref{750180}).
Following the project commissioning in 2013, when not considering the investment and loan repayment impacts ('electricity-only' scenario), we obtain an increase in employment in industry (+0.5%), services (+0.3%) and construction (+0.2%), negligible increases for agriculture, and a decrease in agrifood industry (-0.1%). The employment differences between these sectors are determined by the sector labour intensity (units of labour per unit of output) and the  consequent ability of electricity to increase labour productivity through an input substitution effect. For instance, the decline in labor inputs in agrifood is accompanied by an increase of 4.2% in electricity inputs (see electricity demand changes in SI)
 
When embedding the loan repayments ('loans' scenario), total employment is lower relative to 'electricity only' despite an overall increased economic activity reflected by higher GDP levels. Employment levels are indeed higher in all non-public sectors, however, the reduction in activity in public services has a net effect on the overall labour demand. With the addition of cocoa export terms in the 'resource-secured loans' scenario, total employment is further reduced with a net decrease relative to baseline values in the first 4 years after the project commissioning. This reduction is mainly driven by a lower labour demand in agrifood, industry and services, while higher cocoa exports have a positive impact on employment in agriculture, construction and the energy sectors.