The inclusion of loan repayments in the 'loans' scenario leads to a contrast of impacts between the private and public sectors. Public services (health, education and public administration), being funded by the government, face a decrease of 1% in activity in the first year after commissioning given that the government budget compensates for the differences between the sales of generated project electricity and annual loan repayments. Outside the public sector, all the other activities see a further increase in output compared to 'electricity-only' due to larger exported volumes enabled by a higher exchange rate (see export figures in Supplementary Information).
The 'resource-secured loans' scenario further changes the distribution of impacts across sectors. The higher demand for cocoa exports leads to a further increase in agricultural production but also to higher prices for agricultural commodities. This price effect has a short-term negative impact on the agrifood industry - the demand for cocoa increases land rents in agriculture which are further reflected in the market prices of inputs used in food processing activities. The medium-term output levels of other industry and services are also lower compared to the simple 'loans' scenario, indicating the frictions in the economy stemming from the re-allocation of capital and labour towards agriculture.