Modeling studies |
Modeling studies |
Modeling studies |
Modeling
studies |
Modeling studies |
Modeling studies |
Modeling studies |
Modeling studies |
Modeling studies |
Incidence
|
2 36,45
|
not serious
|
directa
|
precise
|
NA
|
None
|
Wen-Tao et al. state that stronger control measures are more effective:
By reducing the contact rate and infection efficiency by
>50% they predict 3,088 cases within 3 months in Wuhan. By
reducing it only by <45% they predict 4,719 cases.
Hsie et al. state that quarantine is effective to reduce incident cases
(461 SARS cases averted, with a low quarantine rate of 4·7%)
|
Low
|
Onward transmission |
No evidence |
No evidence |
No evidence |
No
evidence |
No evidence |
No evidence |
No evidence |
No
evidence |
Mortality
|
2 36,45
|
not serious
|
directa
|
precise
|
NA
|
None
|
Wen-Tao et al. state that stronger control measures reduce mortality: By
reducing the contact rate and infection efficiency by >50%
they predict
443 deaths out of 11·5 million inhabitants in Wuhan within 3 months, by
reducing it only to <45% they predict 739 deaths.
Effective to reduce mortality (62 SARS deaths averted, with a low
quarantine rate of 4·7% in Taiwan)
|
Low
|
Resource use
|
2 35,38
|
not serious
|
indirecta
|
precise
|
NA
|
None
|
Gupta et al. state that at a transmission rate of 8%, the total savings
of quarantine over isolation alone varies between 279–232 million
Canadian dollars (reference year 2003). The earlier that effective
quarantine measures are implemented, the greater the savings are.
Mubayi et al. came to similar conclusions and state that increasing the
quarantine effort results in lower overall costs over the entire
outbreak in all three assessed quarantine strategies.
|
Very low
|