With reference to 1986,1995,2004,2011 and 2016 TM images of the Shengjin
Lake National Nature Reserve in Anhui province, this paper used ERDAS
and ARCGIS software to collect the different land use information on the
experimental, buffer and core areas for more than 30 years. By combining
the social and economic data and selecting the index which is about the
ecological risk of land use to built the system of land utilization
evaluation index on ecological risk . On this basis, the AHP and expert
commonly were used to determine the weight of index and establish the
assessment model on ecological risk of the land use by using the method
of fuzzy mathematics. With reference to the ecological risk index which
was calculated, and adopting the interpolation and three regression
methods to built a forecasting model .Finally, the computer simulation
was used to establish the early warning for ecological risk of the land
use.