RESULTS
Result of data processing
In areas above 1500 meters, 99 geographical locations of PPR cases left
by 30 km rarefying. The minimum temperature of June was selected as the
environmental variant. No
multi-collinearity was detected by a VIF values within 0 to
2(<10). The variant of vector distance from the river (river
distance) was excluded due to its high standard deviation. Finally, the
minimum temperature of June, vegetation, population density and slope
were adopted for the final model(fig.2 ).
.
In areas below 1500 meters, 81 geographical locations of PPR cases left
by 40 km rarefying. The mean temperature of September was selected as
the environmental variant. No multi-collinearity was detected by a VIF
values within 0 to 2 (<10). The variant of vector distance
from the river (river distance) was excluded due to its high standard
deviation. Finally, the mean temperature of September, vegetation,
population density and slope were adopted for the final model(fig.3
Table.2).
Result of prediction for the Spatial distribution of
PPR
The AUC and SD values of the both
models of above and below 1500 m are 0.825, 0.027and 0.890, 0.005
respectively, indicating a better prediction. The Pamirs Plateau and its
extended mountains are in high-risk areas, and the Tibet and Xinjiang in
western china are surrounded by these risks. From the perspective of
administrative divisions, the countries bordering China are all
high-risk areas of PPR, while the high-risk areas on the China side are
relatively weak(fig.4).
Result of prediction of the maximum available transboundary
paths
Were obtained Five groups of PPR distribution points outside China and
three groups in China were obtained by ArGis cluster analysis. We got
five transboundary paths: 1.Kazakhstan-Confluence of Ili River and
Horgos River- Xinjiang (Huocheng county);
2.Tajikistan-WestPamirPlateau-Xinjiang(Kashgarcity);3.Pakistan-WestPamirPlateau-Xinjiang(Kashgarcity);4.Kashmir-Pakistan-WestPamirPlateau-Xinjiang
(Kashgarcity); 5.Kashmir-Bangon lake-Tibet (Ritu county)(fig.5).