Prediction of suitable habitats and diversity loss under climate
change
After eliminating highly correlated factors, we implemented six factors
to construct species distribution models, including three
precipitation-related (BIO06, BIO08, BIO09) and three
temperature-related (BIO13, BIO14, BIO19) variables. Sixty models were
generated with high predictive accuracies with an AUC of 0.97 (SD =
0.005). The response curves and relative importance (Fig. S9) showed
that the occurrence of P. bengalensis is fundamentally limited by
the precipitation of the driest month (BIO14), the precipitation of the
coldest month (BIO19) and the temperature of the wettest quarter
(BIO08). Using the consensus predictions (TSS = 0.91, SD = 0.032),
suitable habitat for P. bengalensis will have shrunk by 2070
under both emission models, with the predicted contraction according to
the model of increased global warming (RCP 8.5) being more pronounced
(Fig. 7). In 2070, habitats at lower altitudes and in southern
mountainous regions are less suitable, and a reduction in highly
suitable habitats further to the north and in rugged mountainous regions
is also predicted. There were no significant differences in any of the
diversity indices among groups (all with P > 0.05)
according to the two values of habitat suitability we used.