multiple
Since
option priced as a multiple of an engament metric
in a sense this approach is inspired in one of the pilars of Kolmogorov Complexity, the Occam's razor principle : among the theories that are consistent with the observed phenomena, one should select the simplest theory \cite{Li_1993,Li_2008,Li_1997}.
enabling prediction under above average degrees of uncertainty
Conclusions
...
anti-fragility defined in broad terms
open problem: Fragility is K-specific. We are only concerned with adverse events below a certain pre-specified level, the breaking point. Exposures
Boom , bust , and failures to learn in experimental markets \cite{Paich_1993} , Word of mouth, marketing, and learning curve effects can fuel rapid growth, often leading to overcapacity, price war, and bankruptcy. Previous experiments suggest such dysfunctional behavior can be caused by systematic 'misperceptions of feedback', where decision makers do not adequately account for critical feedbacks, time delays, and nonlinearities which condition system dynamics. However, prior studies often failed to vary the strength of these feedbacks as treatments, omitted market processes, and failed to allow for learning.
contracts for difference
Limitations: include social networks
Datasets